DUBLIN, Ireland – Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/dac4c3/2009_outlook_big) has announced the addition of Borrell Associates Inc.’s new report “2009 Outlook: Big Slowdown Begins for Local Interactive Advertising” to their offering.
Next year will be the first in many in which some components of interactive advertising show little or no growth, or may even decline. The changes foreseen are not cyclical, and show no sign of improving quickly, irrespective of upward movement in the nation’s economy. For local interactive media, the big slowdown has begun a year earlier than we anticipated. The spending levels by local advertisers – which have grown at a frenetic 47% this year – are expected to slow down to a relatively paltry 8% in 2009. Local media companies projecting double-digit and even triple-digit increases in their interactive budgets next year will have a very difficult time meeting those expectations – especially if they rely on banner ads. Traditional forms of interactive advertising such as banner ads are quickly falling out of favor and site publishers should begin looking at expanding their ad arsenal with other offerings. Download the executive summary to read more.
Forecasting how businesses will spend their precious ad dollars next year is like skeet- shooting in a windstorm. We’ve got the velocity and trajectory down pat, but the gusts caused by the credit crisis make it harder to pinpoint the target. The generalities, however, are certain for 2009: spending on traditional media will decline, while spending on interactive will increase. Our latest forecast has onine media dropping 1.4 percent next year, while interactive media increases 7.2 percent.
For local interactive media, the big ad slowdown has begun a year earlier than we anticipated. Spending by local advertisers – which has grown at a frenetic 47 percent this year – is expected to diminish to a paltry 7.8 percent in 2009. Local media companies projecting double-digit and even triple-digit increases in their interactive budgets next year will have a very difficult time meeting those expectations – especially if they rely on banner ads. The credit crisis has magnified trends that were already in motion. For most of this decade, advertisers have been viewing interactive media as a more effcient, less costly way of reaching consumers than traditional media buys. “Adjusting the dials” of advertising expenditures is normal business behavior in bleak economic environments. It can be seen in prior downturns as far back as 75 years ago, when radio advertising got a big boost (at the expense of newspapers) during The Great Depression, and 17 years ago when cable advertising expenditures accelerated during the 1991-92 recession. The dials are just about adjusted for interactive media, with some final tweaking occurring next year.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive Summary
CHAPTER 1 – The National Forecast
– Fig.1: US Media Ad Revenue 2007-2009
– Fig.2: Interactive Ad Format Spending, 2007-2009
– Fig.3: Change in National & Local “Standard Format” Ad Spending, 2004-2009
– Fig.4: 2008 Interactive Ad Spending – B2B versus B2C Components
CHAPTER 2 – Credit Crisis Impact
– Fig.5: Original and Recast 2008 US Ad Media Revenue Projections Compared
– Fig.6: Original and Recast 2008 US Interactive Ad Format Spending Projections – Compared
– Fig.7: Forecast Effect of Credit Crisis on “Standard Format” Ad Sales, 2004-2009
– Fig.8: Forecast Effect of Credit Crisis on Paid Search Ad Sales, 2004-2009
– Fig.9: Forecast Effect of Credit Crisis on Direct E-mail Ad Sales, 2004-2009
CHAPTER 3 – Promotions Spending – the Rest of the Story
– Fig.10: Promotions Spending 2007-2009
– Fig.11: Online Promotions Spending, 2006-2013
– Fig.12: Percentage Growth in Online Promotions Spending From Previous Year, 2007-2013
– Appendix A – How Borrell Associates Forecasts
– Appendix B – 2009 Local Interactive Ad Spending Forecast by DMA
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/dac4c3/2009_outlook_big
