New Research from Ace Metrix Reveals Surprising Clarity on the “Swayable 10%” in Campaign ’16

“Swayable” Voters are Key to Election; Care Most About Economy and Candidate Leadership Skills

LOS ANGELES – Ace Metrix, the leader in measuring video advertising effectiveness, released new findings that uncover the truly undecided voters of the 2016 election – the “Swayable 10%” and the advertising messages they best respond to. No longer does registering as a Democrat or Republican imply that you are going to vote for that candidate for president. In addition, voters that are “Independents” are not all necessarily undecided.

New Research from Ace Metrix Reveals Surprising Clarity on the “Swayable 10%” in Campaign ’16

In this race especially, a large portion of the electorate are still undecided, but not all can be persuaded to vote for the two primary candidates. The truly “Swayable” group, a relatively small group of voters (the Swayable 10%), come from all party affiliations, and represent the best opportunity for candidates to persuade–especially when advertising promotes specific character attributes and topics of heightened interest to this group.

To identify the different voter segments, Ace Metrix sought to go deeper than traditional polls. Ace Metrix instructs over 1500 voters each week to rank order their choice in candidate so as to measure voter surety in their current choice, rather than applying the traditional binary “winner-take-all” approach utilized by most polling organizations. This takes into account a voter’s uncertainty and alternate choices, ultimately breaking down the voter pool into four statistically unique groups: Predictable Clinton and Trump supporters (38 percent and 35 percent of voters, respectively); and undecided voters who actually fall into two distinct groups: those who reject both candidates (17 percent of voters) and the Swayable group (10 percent of voters). Only this “Swayable 10%” group can be persuaded to vote for either candidate.

The first “undecided” group – “Rejectors” representing 17 percent of voters – dislike either candidate with such passion, that they would rather cast a vote for an alternate candidate (Johnson or Stein) or not vote at all. They are disenfranchised and disgusted with the system based on the two candidate choices.

Ace Metrix analysis shows that the “Swayable 10%” is comprised of voters that have positive affinity for both candidates but who are not yet sure of who they will vote for. These voters can still be convinced to vote one way or another. Within this group, 34 percent are Republican, 26 percent Democrat and 40 percent Independent, proving that self-identified Independent voters are not the only undecideds in this election.

Relative to the full sample, the “Swayable 10%” disproportionately tend to be Millennial males from all parties, and to a lesser extent, older Independent males and males 36-49 across parties – in fact, the group overall is comprised of 63 percent males.

“With just weeks left in the election and polls remaining tight, the Swayable 10% vote is the crucial group for candidates to understand and target. We sought to better define this group and uncover the kinds of advertising messages that are likely to sway these voters,” said Peter Daboll, CEO of Ace Metrix. “Political marketers that effectively deliver relevant and impactful messages to this group will have the upper hand in influencing the vote and impacting the overall election.”

When asked about important issues, the Swayable 10% group was most concerned with the economy, healthcare and education, with the economy being the most important issue overall. Environmental, domestic and social issues were relatively unimportant to them.

True to these findings, the ads that most positively impacted the “Swayable 10%’s” voting intent were focused on the economy and addressed the honesty and leadership skills of the candidate.

Top Impact Ads Among the “Swayable 10%”

“This group responds much better to positive themed ads, and are seeking reasons to vote for a candidate as opposed to reasons they should vote against another. They value honesty, credibility and facts. The candidate that can reach this 10% with messages that deliver policy-oriented information in a positive manner will be the one to capture these undecided votes on Election Day,” added Daboll.

About Ace Metrix POLITICS

Launched in 2012, Ace Metrix POLITICS provides video ad effectiveness metrics and data to political campaigns, PACs and advocacy groups based on 500 respondents per ad and a sample of national registered voters balanced to the U.S. Census. The data collected provides insights into the effectiveness of the ad, verbatim responses and the likelihood the ad changed the way respondents will vote.

About Ace Metrix

Ace Metrix® is the standard in television and digital video analytics, dedicated to measuring the impact of video ad creative. We provide data and insight to enable marketers and creative teams to produce more impactful work, test and adjust creative executions in real-time, and understand what creative drivers impact their brand KPI’s. The Company is privately held and is backed by leading venture capital firms and industry leaders including Hummer Winblad Venture Partners, Palomar Ventures, Leapfrog Ventures and WPP.

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